Test the Plan

⚠ Hypothetical — cost ranges are estimates from the Refresh Nigeria dossier, not official budgets.

1. What does the pledge mean?
2. Which way to build it?

The dossier's route: rebuild the whole chain with new plants, a new grid and universal meters — paid mostly with public money.

Realistic: ₦1–3T · aggressive: ₦6T

Result

Target delivered power
10,000 MW
New power needed
+5,952 MW (1,488 MW/yr)
Estimated cost
$30.0bn – $40.0bn
Public money needed
$30.0bn – $40.0bn
Recovered money
$1.5bn (4–5% of cost)
Public money still to raise
$28.5bn – $38.5bn
Per year
$7.1bn – $9.6bn

Four years is technically possible but has never been done; normal ministry procurement would miss it.

Restored gas plants count once toward the target — never again as new capacity. “Adding” costs are scaled from the dossier range (hypothetical).