Chapter 55 / 8

Every megawatt has a price tag.

Refresh Nigeria's model puts the full bill at $20–35 billion — and $30–40 billion if it must be done in four years.

⚠ Estimate — ranges from the Refresh Nigeria dossier at ₦1,360 per US dollar. Not official figures.

  • Gas supply debts & pipelines$2.5–4bn
  • Repair & expand power plants$6–10bn
  • Transmission grid (TCN)$5–8bn
  • Distribution networks$4–7bn
  • Metering every customer$2–3.5bn
  • Solar & mini-grids$2–4bn

Total: $20–35bn · 4-year rush: $30–40bn

Estimate · Refresh Nigeria — Power Truth dossier (financial model)

Who pays? Open the Tariff Cockpit (Band A–E) →

Can 1 kWh cost ₦100?

Six changes that take the true cost from ₦210 to ₦103

Ordering a lower price doesn't make power cheaper; it only creates subsidy debt. Real cuts come from changing what it costs to make and deliver each kWh.

⚠ Hypothetical — Hypothetical reform scenario built with this app's teaching model. Each step's saving is applied in order, so the size of later savings depends on earlier ones. Not a NERC forecast.

  1. 1. Cut network losses

    −₦38

    ATC&C 30% → 12%, grid loss 8% → 5%

    100% prepaid meters, aerial bundled cables, feeder metering, MDA bills deducted at source.

    ₦210 → ₦172 per kWh

  2. 2. Stabilise the power-sector exchange rate

    −₦24

    ₦1,450 → ₦1,150 per $

    Ring-fenced power FX window, or naira-priced gas and capacity contracts.

    ₦172 → ₦148 per kWh

  3. 3. Burn less gas per kWh

    −₦23

    Heat rate 10.5 → 8.0 MMBtu/MWh; plant cost $0.035 → $0.025/kWh

    Convert open-cycle turbines to combined cycle; replace worn units. Refinance plant debt over longer terms.

    ₦148 → ₦125 per kWh

  4. 4. Use more hydro

    −₦1

    Hydro share 25% → 35%

    Fully dispatch Zungeru, Kainji, Jebba and Shiroro, especially in the rainy season.

    ₦125 → ₦124 per kWh

  5. 5. Spread DisCo costs over more power

    −₦15

    DisCo cost ₦40 → ₦25 per kWh

    Double the power flowing through the grid so fixed costs are shared by more kWh.

    ₦124 → ₦109 per kWh

  6. 6. Cheaper, naira-priced gas

    −₦6

    Delivered gas $3.22 → $2.40 per MMBtu

    Flare-gas capture, lower pipeline tariffs, long-term naira gas-to-power contracts.

    ₦109 → ₦103 per kWh

Today

₦210

All six done

₦103

Try it: press "₦100 blueprint" in the Tariff cockpit
Show details +
  • Baseline: $20–35bn (about ₦27–48 trillion). Compressed four-year delivery: $30–40bn.
  • Biggest items: power plants ($6–10bn), the transmission grid ($5–8bn) and distribution ($4–7bn).
  • Likely funding mix: private power producers, development lenders, Eurobonds and cost-reflective tariffs — not the budget alone.
  • Cheaper route (our estimate): restore idle gas plants, cut losses, and let states, companies and solar producers build near cities — about 6,000 MW for roughly $7–11bn, much of it private money. Compare both in Test the Plan.
  • Cheaper power (hypothetical): cutting losses, steadying the exchange rate, more efficient plants, more hydro, spreading DisCo costs and cheaper gas could bring the true cost of 1 kWh from about ₦210 to about ₦100.
Share this chapter on WhatsApp